Answer
—Probability tells you the likelihood that a particular random event will happen. ... Probability can help you to make better decisions, such as deciding whether or not to play a game where the outcome may not be immediately obvious. When we’re trying to decide on a course of action from the multitude of options we typically have, we’re trying to, at the very least, predict the future. (Not in an psychic sense, of course.) In other words, we’re assessing the options we have and calculating the probability that decision A will result in outcome A, B, or C – while also figuring out how good or bad outcomes A, B, or C would be if they happened.
When we’re trying to decide on a course of action from the multitude of options we typically have, we’re trying to, at the very least, predict the future. (Not in an psychic sense, of course.) In other words, we’re assessing the options we have and calculating the probability that decision A will result in outcome A, B, or C – while also figuring out how good or bad outcomes A, B, or C would be if they happened.Of course, we all want to make good decisions. But we don’t always do that – and sometimes, our bad decisions are catastrophic.
When we’re trying to decide on a course of action from the multitude of options we typically have, we’re trying to, at the very least, predict the future. (Not in an psychic sense, of course.) In other words, we’re assessing the options we have and calculating the probability that decision A will result in outcome A, B, or C – while also figuring out how good or bad outcomes A, B, or C would be if they happened.Of course, we all want to make good decisions. But we don’t always do that – and sometimes, our bad decisions are catastrophic.As we’re about to cover, there are several reasons why humans make poor decisions, ranging from cognitive biases to simply not using the right processes. We’ll also cover what you can do to put yourself in a position to make better calls and do a better job of predicting outcomes and assessing probabilities.
When we’re trying to decide on a course of action from the multitude of options we typically have, we’re trying to, at the very least, predict the future. (Not in an psychic sense, of course.) In other words, we’re assessing the options we have and calculating the probability that decision A will result in outcome A, B, or C – while also figuring out how good or bad outcomes A, B, or C would be if they happened.Of course, we all want to make good decisions. But we don’t always do that – and sometimes, our bad decisions are catastrophic.As we’re about to cover, there are several reasons why humans make poor decisions, ranging from cognitive biases to simply not using the right processes. We’ll also cover what you can do to put yourself in a position to make better calls and do a better job of predicting outcomes and assessing probabilities.The takeaway will be simple: If you do the right things, your decision-making ability will measurably improve – and a good number of those bad decisions can be changed for the better.
